The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Reviewed by Robert Pritchett
Introduction
"It seems self-evident to many
that oil resources are on the verge of running out, that we are approaching
‘peak oil’, after which oil production will inevitably decline. ‘End of oil’
books, articles, blogs and TV shows proliferate. A complex of myths about oil
has grown up that hamper us from making rational decisions about energy.
‘The Myth of the Oil Crisis’
establishes that, contrary to ‘peak oil’ arguments:
- Models
used to predict ‘peak oil’ production are flawed, unscientific and have
repeatedly failed in the past
- Global
oil reserves are, overall, not heavily over-stated
- There
is large remaining exploration potential around the world, in OPEC countries,
new frontiers and even mature non-OPEC nations
- Resources
of unconventional oil—heavy oil, oil sands, gas– and coal-derived
liquids, biofuels and others—are enormous, much larger than the conventional
oil endowment
- Unconventional
oil can be produced fast enough to replace a decline in conventional oil
- Geopolitical
issues and terrorism are not an insuperable threat to world oil supplies
- If
necessary, oil consumption can be reduced dramatically even while living
standards continue to improve
- New
technologies and sensible policies can radically reduce the environmental
impact of hydrocarbons and tackle climate change
With oil well over $100 a barrel,
drivers wince whenever they pull into the gas station and businesses watch
their bottom lines shrink. "Watch out," say doomsayers, "it will
only get worse as oil dries up." It's a plausible argument, especially
considering the rate at which countries like China and India are now sucking up
oil. Even more troubling, the world's largest oil fields sit in geopolitical
hotspots like Iran and Iraq. Some believe their nations need to secure
remaining supplies using military force, while others consider dwindling
supplies a blessing that will help solve the problem of global warming. But
wait--is it really the "end of oil"? Absolutely not, says geologist,
economist, and industry-insider Robin Mills.
According to Mills, many ideas
about petroleum depletion and its consequences are not just grossly overstated
but plain wrong. Calmly and persuasively, he argues:
The
supply of oil and gas is much larger than imagined by the pessimists.
Seeking
political, military, or commercial control of oil supplies is unnecessary,
self-defeating, and exorbitantly expensive.
Oil
is merely one convenient source of energy.
Opportunities
exist to decrease the global consumption of oil radically while maintaining a
healthy economy.
The
environmental impact of fossil fuels is the most serious problem the world
faces today. But a portfolio of solutions can solve it.
There is no other book by an
industry insider that effectively counters the "peak oil" theory by
showing where and how oil will be found in the future. There also is no other
book by an insider that lays out an environmentally and geopolitically
responsible path for the petroleum industry and its customers. The Myth of the
Oil Crisis, written in a lively style but with scientific rigor, is thus a
uniquely useful resource for business leaders, policymakers, petroleum industry
professionals, environmentalists, and anyone else who consumes oil. Best of
all, it offers an abundance of one commodity now in short supply: hope for the
future."
What I Learned
This book gives much-needed insight into what is and what is
not instead of relying on works of fiction or political maneuvering to come to
valid conclusions.
And it jives with the page I put up on PESWiki regarding
North American Oil Fields –
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:North_American_Oil_Fields
Robin also as an "insider", defends turf by
attempting to negate petroleum as a renewable resource and still promulgates it
as a shrinking resource - just not
fully exploited. Perhaps my
article on the topic of Abiotic Oil would be enlightening?
http://www.maccompanion.com/macc/archives/April2008/Greenware/Fossil.htm
Besides that little aside, this book is full of excellent
meat for the oil debate table. I love the segregation and categorization
of the "Five Schools of
Thought"; Economists, Geologists, Mercantilists, Militarists, and Neo-Luddites
and their definitions.
I appreciated very much the Abbreviations page that I
referred to time and again for such Oilogopoly terms, such as boe (barrels of
oil equivalent), EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and YtF (Yet to Find).
The various Figures and Table were well-placed and easy to
read. The Notes, Bibliography and Index made this book a scholarly effort. In
other words the printers did an excellent job editing and compiling this
yet-to-become Classic.
My take-away is that just because we haven't drilled for
petroleum in various places on earth doesn't mean it isn't there and the
"shortage" in just about all instances is due to war and civil unrest
and not due to depletion. Oh that
and the other war known as "Geopolitics" that keep us from exploiting
resources, such as Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska spoke of prior to her nomination
for the Vice Presidency of the US.
Conclusions
It has been videoed, debated and now in style it is in print
regarding what is real and what is not about petroleum under the earth.
Just ignore the various "Climate Change" comments
and move on. They don't really belong in the book, especially since it attempts
successfully to dispel the Peak Oil™ Myth - http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Peak_Oil,
but it is time to bury the Global Warming™ Myth - http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Global_Warming
as well and
stop promulgating it. But perhaps that will be forthcoming in another book.
